Forecasting Hong Kong House Prices

Forecasting Hong Kong house prices. 
Will unemployment lead to a drop in house prices in 2020?

High correlation between unemployment and house prices could lead to a structural break in the correlation between the HSI and house prices.

Last year, we published Forecasting Hong Kong house prices January 2019 and November 2019 papers assessing how Hong Kong housing prices changed according to various factors. We concluded that the Hang Seng index (HSI) has been the most correlated indicator for forecasting home prices in Hong Kong, with the HSI leading house prices, especially mass residential prices, by 3 to 6 months. With Hong Kong witnessing a series of new socio-economic incidents since the second half of 2018, it’s a good time to review how the housing market and the HSI evolved during this period.